Eyeball HQ

Trev's Blog


February 6, 2016

It’s coming for us folks and there is nothing we can do about it. Good luck to all the big wave athletes and good luck to those searching for those hidden gems that may light up with this humongous swell.

Massive swell but challenging conditions ahead for Europe; NW Africa and Israel more inviting
By Charlie Hutcherson and Mark Willis

Deep low pressure in the northern Atlantic is setting the table for an XXL-sized swell that will impact Western Europe during the first half of next week.A 954mb low, currently off the southeast coast of Greenland, has already generated satellite measured seas in excess of 40-45ft from a wide swath of hurricane force winds. As a result, look for very large to XL swell to fill in over the back half of the weekend.
This low will be joined by additional lows over the weekend, including another deep low moving off US East Coast. This storm is expected to develop hurricane force winds in the 60-80kt range as it tracks eastward across a very agitated northern Atlantic before impacting the British Isles start of the new week.

Screen shot 2016-02-06 at 23.18.09

This sets up XXL-sized swell that looks to peak around the start of the week for the Isles, into Tuesday for the Mainland, and into Wednesday for spots further south. With models putting long period, deepwater swell in the 35ft range and seas in the 50-60ft range around the Isles and 25ft+ deepwater swell inside the Bay of Biscay, many exposed breaks across the region will see XL-XXL surf over the first half of the week.

Unfortunately, winds and conditions again look problematic for much of the northeast Atlantic, with Spain and points south looking the most manageable. The storm will impact the Isles, setting up massive storm surf there while a front associated with the low moves through Iberia, bringing onshore winds for the east facing spots in Portugal and France. At this point, periods of more manageable offshore to sideshore winds are expected for portions of Spain’s coast start of the week, setting up potentially good to very good conditions for some spots. To the south, the Canaries will see moderate but manageable trades and Morocco is expecting light winds as high pressure extends over these regions. For more details, check the Regional Forecast for your country.

And looking further to the east (and much, much less XXL) the eastern Mediterranean Sea has been rather quiet since the Netanya Israel Pro wrapped up a couple weeks ago. The majority of our new human forecasts have been below waist high since the event, with most days containing the dreaded “FLAT and FLAT” conditions. Luckily, we’re in the peak swell season and we’ve got something on the horizon for the weekend and into next week.

Broad low pressure will move through the northeast Mediterranean on Saturday, allowing an area of 25-35kt NW to W winds to set up over the region. This will allow W windswell to build quickly through the day on Saturday and into Sunday, but with onshore winds a problem. Winds are forecast to diminish later Sunday and into Monday as the swell eases, setting up some fun waves for the region. Note that we’re monitoring another potential fun windswell event for later next week. Be sure to monitor our new human value-added forecasts for Israel’s coast for additional details.

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